Here’s my breakdown of the Oscar nominations with my predictions and those nominees I want to win.
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
War Horse
The Tree of Life
Nine is such a weird number, oh well. If we had five nominees (which is the number I wish the Academy had stuck with) then it would have been the top five on this list. The bottom four are really just hanging around for no reason. Personally I was disappointed not to see Beginners or Win, Win on this list but it’s too long of a list anyway so I can’t complain about any snubs this year. The weakest ones are War Horse and Tree of Life.
Predictions: The Artist
It’s a close one. But this clever crowd pleaser just edges out The Descendants and Midnight In Paris. It should win and it will. In my view only The Help could beat it, which would be okay, but I hoping for the silent Film to take it.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius -The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight In Paris
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
If we were back during the Five Nomination days for Best Picture we’d be talking about how The Help’s director got snubbed. He wasn’t and nobody was this year.
Predictions: Michel Hazanavicius
For me this is a race between Hazanavicius and Payne but I think in the Academy’s eyes it’s between Scorsese and Hazanazvicius. I’m going with the new guy only because Scorsese already won. Plus I just think directing a silent film deserves the recognition. BEST ACTOR
Demian Bichir - A Better Life
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Gary Oldman -Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Although I haven’t seen Shame, I feel that Fassingberg’s performance probably was the best this year, but he’s not even nominated which is a huge Snub. He should win but won’t. The five here are all deserving and it’s a tight race.
Predictions: Jean Dujardin
He will win and should. George Clooney and Gary Oldman have to be next in line with Brad Pitt as the weaker of the five. Demian Bichir was amazing but I doubt enough voters watched his film.
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Rooney Mara - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
I’ve only seen two of the above performances so it’s hard to gauge who deserves it and who out there deserves it. I’ve heard nothing but praise from Twilda Swinton for Let’s Talk About Kevin but again I’ve not seen it.
Predictions: Viola Davis
I have a strong feeling that Viola Davis is taking the stage Sunday night. Meryl Streep hasn’t won in a while but she still has won so I think the Academy is going to give it to the actress in the better film. Rooney Mara was good but nowhere near as emotionally rich as Viola Davis. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
I’ve seen four and all of them are worthy. Many are talking about Albert Brooks being Snubbed for Drive and he probably was, but of the four I don’t know which I’d toss out.
Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Beginners has to get an Oscar and here’s the place it can get it. It’s a fine performance too, from one of the greats.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
All the ladies deserve the win but there can be only one. This year the Academy got this one right.
Predictions: Octavia Spencer
I believe she will win. As stated above it’s hard to say who should win when they all deserve it so I’ll be happy whoever actually takes the prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist -- Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids -- Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Margin Call -- J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris -- Woody Allen
A Separation -- Asghar Farhadi
Where’s Win, Win and Beginners? Oh well, these five will do. Bridesmaids is an excellent script but in my mind not really Oscar worthy. A Separation is the only one I’ve not seen but from what I know of it probably deserves the spot.
Predictions: The Artist
The Artist is a great screenplay and it will win. But if I were voting I’d give it to Woody Allen. Midnight in Paris is the best screenplay on this list and I’d love to see the legend pickup another golden boy.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants -- Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Nash
Hugo -- John Logan
The Ides of March -- George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
Moneyball-- Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin Story by Stan Chervin
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy -- Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Thank the Movie Award Gods for not nominating the weak adaptation of The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (although Mr. Zaillian doesn’t care since he’s nominated anyway). Really all of these on this list deserve to be here. I was curious that The Help didn’t get a spot but I don’t know which one of the five I’d knock off.
Predictions: The Descendants
This one is easy. The Descendants is so good at doing what is so hard: voice-over and exposition. What a rich and beautiful screenplay. It won’t even be close.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
I’ve seen three of the five. I was surprised that Rio didn’t get in there, but I’m sure A Cat In Paris and Chico & Rita are deserving.
Predictions: Rango
The only competition here is with Puss In Boots but I don’t really see that happening. Rango should win and it will.
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
The technical awards are hard this year. All the nominees deserve a spot so I won’t even try to think of a snub or two.
Predictions: The Artist
Here’s my plan, since I think The Artist will win Best Picture I think it will win some of the technical awards. Plus recreating ‘20s Hollywood as well as they did is an accomplishment. If I were voting I’d give it to Hugo.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist-- Guillaume Schiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo - Robert Richardson
The Tree of Life - Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse - Janusz Kaminski
Will they give it to a black and white film? Will Kaminski win without Spielberg as a nominee for director? All five are deserving.
Predictions: The Tree of Life
For me it’s an easy choice. The best thing about the Tree of Life was its cinematography, which is breathtaking all the way through. It should win but will it? I think so. Hugo or War Horse could upstage the Malick poem . . . I mean film.
BEST COSTUME DESIGIN
Anonymous - Lisy Christl
The Artist - Mark Bridges
Hugo - Sandy Powell
Jane Eyre - Michael O'Connor
W.E. - Arianne Phillips
This one is hard because I’ve only seen two of the films. I like all the choices through and I’m glad to see a few new names.
Predictions: The Artist
This one is hard. I can see Sandy Powell winning because her work in Hugo is very strong but I think the Artist’s ‘20s fashion will take the prize. BEST EDITING
The Artist - Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants - Kevin Tent
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Hugo - Thelma Schoonmaker
Moneyball - Christopher Tellefsen
The big snub here is that a documentary didn’t get nominated. Why is that? Documentaries never get nominated for this award but it’s so important for that kind of filmmaking. That’s a big snub and I can think of five documentaries that should have a spot here. At least the jumbled mess known as The Tree of Life wasn’t nominated. But I would have enjoyed seeing Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close take the spot that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo grabbed.
Prediction: The Artist
’m going with the eventual winner of Best Picture since history shows that the winner of Editing goes on to wn Best Picture a lot of the time. But Moneyball deserves the award in my mind.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
I’ve seen none of them so I can’t really write about these seemingly wonderful films.
Predictions: A Separation
Since this is the one that’s one so many critics top ten lists I think it’ll pickup the most votes. BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part
The Iron Lady
Best Makeup is a weird category. It’s never more than three nominees and they always range from big fantastic things and aging.
Predictions: The Iron Lady.
I just have a feeling about this one. Sorry Potter you’re not winning Sunday.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predictions: War Horse
War movie? Okay that’s my choice.
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predictions: War Horse
Same reasoning as before. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Five nominees? Wow, I remember when there was only three. I wish there was only four so Transformers wouldn’t be there.
Predictions: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
It will be close but the Ape movie will beat the Wizard one by just a hair. I’d be surprised if Hugo or Real Steel won. I’m just trying to pretend Transformers doesn’t exist. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin - John Williams
The Artist - Ludovic Bource
Hugo - Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Alberto Iglesias
War Horse - John Williams
John Williams gets a double nomination. Will he win on his 80th Birthday? I don’t really think it’s going to happen but I’m sure he’s used to it.
Predictions: The Artist
Since music is so important for The Artist, I think it will win. Only Hugo can beat it. Still I think it will and should.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets -- Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from Rio -- Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett
I don’t know what’s more stupid: that there are only two songs nominated or that there’s not five songs to pick from. Why Academy do you have to have such stupid rules? If you look at the Golden Globes you’ll find five songs worthy of a nominations.
Predictions: The Muppets
It will and it should. Rio is a close second.
BEST DOCUMENTRY
Hell and Back Again -- Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front -- Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory -- Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
Pina -- Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
Undefeated -- TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas
I’ve seen three of the nominated films and can think of three others that were Snubbed. Poor Steve James, the director of Hoop Dreams gets ignored once again for his praised documentary The Interrupters. Werner Herzog can’t pick up a nomination either.
Predictions: Pina
It will win and I think it should win. A close second would be Paradise Lost 3 for a way to reward the filmmakers for pursuing justice.
Someday the Academy will find a way to get these shorts out there for us average-joes to watch, but until then we have to read synopsis and/or view trailers on youTube.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Predictions: Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom could win too but I think Saving Face has a topic that will pull at the voter’s heart strings.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Predictions: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Unless the voters want Pixer to get something this year I don’t see this one loosing.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Pentecost - Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
Raju - Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
The Shore - Terry George and Oorlagh George
Time Freak - Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
Tuba Atlantic - Hallvar Witzø
Predictions: The Shore
This one is hard because I really like the ideas behind Time Freak and Tuba Atlantic. Yet the pedigree coming from The Shore is hard to ignore. Plus Ciarán Hinds is in it.
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