BEST PICTURE: I’ve seen all nominees.
Should win: The King’s Speech
Will win: The King’s Speech
Likely Upset: The Social Network
Biggest Upset: Winter’s Bone
I loved many of these other films but The King’s Speech is fantastic. The Social Network might still beat it but I’d be disappointed. The Social Network was good but it’s not even the second best of the ten nominated film.
BEST DIRECTOR: I’ve seen all nominees.
Should win: Ethan and Joel Coen
Will Win: David Fincher
Likely Upset: Tom Hooper
Biggest Upset: David O. Russell
Tom Hooper could pull off an upset here but it wouldn’t be a surprise since his is the best film of the lot. But I feel like David Fincher is going to win because of his body of work and the fact he made a movie about Facebook look great. My reason for voting for the Coen Brothers is because I think they’re the best. Their direction for True Grit was flawless in my opinion.
BEST ACTOR: I’ve seen all nominees except for Javiar Bardem in Biutiful.
Should win: Colin Firth
Will Win: Colin Firth
Biggest Upset: Anyone else.
Colin Firth deserves it. It’s a done deal. Let’s move on.
BEST ACTRESS: I’ve seen all the nominees except for Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole.
Should win: Natalie Portman
Will win: Natalie Portman
Likely Upset: Annette Bening
Natalie deserves it but the Academy might want to reward Annette the award simply because she’s come so close before but never won. That would be shame but it happens all the time. I’ll be crossing my fingers that they give it to the one who had to train her heart out as a ballerina instead of the one who just had to act like a bitch.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Christain Bale
Will win: Christain Bale
Likely Upset 1: Jonathan Hawks
Likely Upset 2: Geoffrey Rush
Biggest Upset: Jeremy Renner
For the last few months I’ve said that Mr. Bale had it made, but I have this strange feeling that Jonathan Hawks is going to shock the world. I wouldn’t bet money on it (which is why I’m predicting Mr. Bale) but I wouldn’t be floored. With all the love for The King’s Speech I could see Bale and Rush splitting the vote making Hawks the winner. I thought Mr. Hawks was the best part of Winter’s Bone but Mr. Bale deserves the prize. (Which leads to another question: has Hollywood forgiven Mr. Bale for his tirade on the set of Terminator 4?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld
Will win: Melissa Leo
Likely Upset: Hailee Steinfeld
Biggets Upset: Jacki Weaver
This is a hard one only because it looked like Melissa Leo was going to win this easily until you account for the fact that Hailee Steinfeld should have been nominated for best Actress and that might push her over the edge. Also it wasn’t too bright for Melissa Leo to campaign for the award in the press (how dare her); that rubbed some voters the wrong way I’m sure. I personally don’t care who of these two women win because they both deserve it.
Should win: Inception
Will win: The King’s Speech
Likely Upset: Inception
Biggest Upset: Another Year
I always lean toward the more creative of the bunch when it comes to the screenplay awards which is why I am voting for Inception but The King’s Speech will probably win because it’s the better film. Another reason why Inception could win is to console Christopher Nolan for not being nominated for directing. Either script deserves the award.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: The Social Network
Will Win: The Social Network
Biggest Upset: Anyone else
The Social Network will win because the dialogue is so delicious and quotable and actors (who make up the majority of the Academy) love great dialogue. Also it’s funny and a very entertaining film about Facebook. Who would have thought?
BEST ANIMATED FILM: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Toy Story 3
Will win: Toy Story 3
Biggest Upset: How to Train Your Dragon
Easy right? It should be. Toy Story 3 is nominated for best picture too. Dreamworks would love to see an upset though. Here’s hoping Pixar accepts another Oscar.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Inception
Will win: Inception
Likely Upset: The King’s Speech
Inception’s score is so epic and powerful I don’t see Hans Zimmer losing but some might be turned off by its loudness and want to reward someone else. If Inception loses I’m thinking The King’s Speech would win because it’s the best film of the year.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: I’ve seen all the nominees except for Hereafter.
Should win: Inception
Will win: Inception
Biggest Upset: Alice in Wonderland
Not much of a race. Inception was just bolder and more memorable. Alice in Wonderland was great too but it was more like window dressing for a weak script. Inceptions visuals actually helped tell the story.
BEST ART DIRECTION: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Inception
Will win: The King’s Speech
Likely Upset: Alice in Wonderland
This is the hardest to figure out. I think Inception was amazing, especially the design of the repeating staircase and the giant falling apart city but the Academy usually rewards period films for Art direction which is why I’m betting on The King’s Speech. Alice in Wonderland could surprise, considering all the cool props and castle designs.
BEST COSTUMES: I’ve seen all the nominees except for I am Love and The Tempest
Should win: Alice in Wonderland
Will win: The King’s Speech
This is second hardest to figure out. I’m going with The King’s Speech because it’s the best film of the year. Yet Colleen Atwood’s work on Alice in Wonderland was amazing, just look at the Red Queen’s dress alone as an example. I also loved how they solved dressing Alice even as she changed size.
BEST EDITING: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: The Fighter
Will win: The King’s Speech
Likely Upset: The Social Network
When in doubt I predict the film that’s going to win best picture; which is why I’m predicting The King’s Speech as the winner. I’d prefer The Fighter or Black Swan but The King’s Speech is deserving as well.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: True Grit
Will win: True Grit
Likely Upset: The King’s Speech
It’s time for Roger Deakins to finally win an Oscar. The man has filmed some of the most amazing movies ever made and he’s never won; how is that possible? Barton Fink, The Big Lebowski, O Brother Where Art Thou and even the black and white film The Man that Wasn’t there. True Grit is a great accomplishment and the most deserving of the bunch. I hope the Academy gets it right. I think they will.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: I’ve only seen Dogtooth.
Should win: Unable to vote
Will win: Biutiful
Likely Upset: In a Better World
In a Better World might win this one but I think Biutiful will win because of Javiar Bardem’s appeal.
BEST MAKEUP: I’ve only seen The Wolfman
Should win: Unable to vote
Will win: Barney’s Version
Likely Upset: The Wolfman
I’m going to guess that old age makeup will defeat werewolf make up this year.
BEST SOUND EDITING: I’ve seen all the nominees except for Unstoppable.
Should win: Inception
Will win: Inception
Biggest Upset: Unstoppable
Inception’s sound was more complex which is why I’m guessing it will win.
BEST SOUND MIXING: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Inception
Will win: Inception
Inception will win for the same reason stated above.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: I’ve seen all the nominees.
Should win: Tangled
Will win: Tangled
Likely Upset: Toy Story 3
Tangled had the best songs of the year in a movie so it should win. Country Strong is cheesy so I doubt it will gather enough votes. Toy Story 3 might receive some votes out of nostalgia for the first two Toy Story films but I’m still thinking Tangled will win this one.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: I’ve seen all the nominees except for Wasteland and Inside Job
Should win: Gasland
Will win: Inside Job
Likely Upset: Exit Through the Gift Shop
This is a fun category because of the diversity of films represented. I’m thinking a film that examines the financial crisis will triumph over Banksy’s entertaining but questionable film about street art. I’d love to see Gasland win but I doubt many voters were curious enough to check out a film about the dangers of hydraulic fracturing. Really it doesn’t matter who wins because all of these are deserving.
NOTE ON SHORTS
I love the fact that the Academy rewards film makers of shorts. I only wished they helped distribute these always artful and important films to the public before the ceremony, especially today with the Internet as the perfect tool. I know you can watch them on iTunes but that’s not good enough in my opinion.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: I’ve seen none of these nominees.
Should win: Unable to vote.
Will win: Strangers No More
Likely Upset: Sun Come Up
Based on trailers alone I’m going to guess that Strangers No More, about a school in Tel Aviv that teaches kids from all around the world, looks like the favorite; it seems really uplifting. Unless the Academy wants to make a statement against global warming: then Sun Come Up, about villagers from a small island having to evacuate due to climate change.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: I’ve seen none of these nominees.
Should win: Unable to vote.
Will win: Na Wewe
Based only from clips I’m picking Na Wewe which looked the most polished of the five. It’s very serious and a tense film about ethnic cleansing in Africa. If the Academy is in a Woody Allen mood I could see them picking God Is Love but I doubt it.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: I’ve only seen Day and Night.
Should win: Unable to vote.
Will win: Day and Night
Likely Upset: The Gruffalo
Day and Night was so original and brilliant I can’t see any of the others winning. The Lost Thing looks really cool and The Gruffalo has very unique squirrels, but I think Pixar will probably win this one, unless the Academy wants to support an artist not backed by a big animation house like Pixar.
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