2014 Oscar Predictions

Another Oscars and again I don’t expect any surprises. To be honest with you, the fun of the Oscars is over. It’s not just the increasing of the best picture nominations to more than five. With awards season so bloated now, the Oscars are just too predictable. The only awards that are usually unpredictable are the technical awards and this year I don’t know if that’s the case. Let’s hope Ellen DeGeneres gives us a good show. Anyway here we go; the Nominations for this year’s Academy awards.

BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
Wolf of Wall Street

6/9: Another 9? Just like last year. I know I’m a broken record but this number of nominees just doesn’t make any sense. It’s stupid. The only surprises I see are the snubs of The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks. But they’re minor snubs and I don’t know which two I’d kick off the above list without having seen the rest.

Who will and should win: 12 Years a Slave – It’s too important a film not to take home the prize. There’s no way Gravity or Dallas Buyers Club can steal it.

BEST DIRECTOR
12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen
American Hustle, David O. Russell
Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron
Nebraska, Alexander Payne
The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese

4/5: Here’s your real list of nominees for best picture. I’ve only seen two of them so far but I suspect it’s a race between Cuaron and McQueen. While McQueen’s work is extraordinary, I believe Cuaron’s work is slightly more deserving. I doubt Scorsese will win here.

BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

3/5: As can be seen I haven’t done that well seeing all the nominees this year but it doesn’t matter. From all the buzz I can tell who is going to win.

Who will and should win: Matthew McConaughey. The Academy loves seeing an actor reach deep within and bring out a character that transcends their own identity. The only actor who could beat McConaughey is Chiwetel Ejiofor who gives an amazing performance. I might have even put Ejiofor as the “should be” candidate but decided not to because of McConaughey’s transformation.

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

3/5: Meryl Streep again? What an amazing actress. She’ll not win because I don’t think enough people have seen her film but what an accomplishment to be nominated so many times. This is one of the closest races. But it’s not really that close of course.

Who will and should win: Cate Blanchett I love what Sandra Bullock did in Gravity but Blanchett’s neurotic character is too complex not to take home the prize. Woody Allen writes another great character for a great actor to sink their teeth in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

4/5: What a collection of great performances. I hate it though because we already know who the winner is. If there was a surprise, I’d love to see Jonah Hill step on stage as a shocker.

Who will and should win: Jared Leto Of course it’s the one I didn’t see that will win. I know I should have seen this film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

3/5: Jennifer Lawrence might really be the next Streep at this rate. A well-deserved nomination. And she could win too.

Who will and should win: Lupita Nyong’o While Lawrence is an easy second place, Nyong’o is the standout.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson

3/5: It warms my heart that Woody Allen gets nominated again. It’s deserving and proof he’s one of the greatest screenwriters of all time. To me this is another one horse race.

Who will and should win: Spike Jonze for Her I don’t really need to elaborate but I just think this is a beautiful science fiction film. See, science fiction can be intellectually entertaining and doesn’t have to have robots blowing up things.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

3/5: This year really is super predictable.

Who will and should win: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. For the same reasons why 12 Years a Slave will win best picture, Ridley will win for writing.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

2/5: I loved both films I saw and can’t wait to see the other 3. Despicable Me 2 was the easy frontrunner this Summer but there’s no way it wins.

Who will and should win: Frozen. Disney is back on top. I don’t think an animated film has caught the imaginations of a nation of children since the Lion King. And with two female protagonists? Awesome.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Gravity, Steven Price
The Book Thief, John Williams
Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

2/5: It’s good to see John Williams on this list again and Thomas Newman. Yet again a veteran will not win this year.

Who will and should win: Gravity. Steven Price’s score perfectly represents the sounds of space. It’s what helps make the film so incredibly exciting.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

4/5: I’m so angry that The Long Ranger is on this list. True, I haven’t seen it but I don’t care. Pacific Rim and The Man of Steel were fantastic. In fact I’d want Pacific Rim to have the award if it had been nominated. This is the really only criminal snub of the year and it’s a big one.

Who will win: Gravity. This film will win because it’s too popular and in many ways one big special effect anyway.

Who should win: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. Smaug alone was awesome enough for me for this film to win but the Academy probably isn’t impressed because this kind of magic is what they expect from Middle Earth.

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Great Gatsby
American Hustle
Gravity
Her
12 Years a Slave

5/5: From past years I’ve learned not to bet against the historical epic. I’m so glad to see The Great Gatsby not get forgotten. It would be a nice surprise to see it win but it won’t because I don’t’ think the film was well-received.

Who will win: 12 Years A Slave. It’s going to win best picture and that helps give it votes.

Who should win: Her. I love the way the future looks like in this film. It’s believable without being distracting.

BEST COSTUMES
The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin (WINNER)
American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping
The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

3/5: Yeah for The Great Gatsby and other surprises like The Grandmaster and The Invisible Woman. Will we have at least one surprise this year?

Who will win: 12 Years a Slave. Never bet against the future best picture winner.

Who should win: The Great Gatsby. Way more spectacle driven than accurate, I still think this was the most impressive looking take on the ‘20s I’ve seen on film.

BEST EDITING
Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger (WINNER)
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

4/5: This is one of those categories that’s really hard to know what to look for since we’re not allowed to see what footage was not used in the finale produce. So all we (the audience) have to judge is how the overall film flows. This is the most subjective category of the Oscars.

Who will and should win: Gravity. There’s a tradition where the winner of Editing wins Best Picture. This will be one of those years that’s not the case.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki (WINNER)
The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

3/5: I love seeing a black and white film get nominated. Really great list of nominees. This makes me really want to see The Grandmaster.

Who will and should win: Gravity. Whenever a film visually does what hasn’t been done before, you know it deserves the award. Easy pick.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
20 Feet From Stardom, Morgan Neville, Gil Friesen and Caitrin Rogers (WINNER)
The Act of Killing, Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
Cutie and the Boxer, Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
Dirty Wars, Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
The Square, Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer

5/5: I love Netflix for having all but one of these available to stream. And the other I checked out by disc. All of these are good documentaries and deserving of the award.

Who will and should win: The Square. This is a close one. 20 Feet from Stardom is the crowd pleaser but this inside look at the Egyptian revolution is way too important to be ignored.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Great Beauty, Italy (WINNER)
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Hunt, Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine

1/5: This is the second year in a row where I’ve only seen one of the nominees. I wish Netflix could get some kind of agreement to show all the nominees for these foreign films. I really want to see them.

Who will and should win: The Hunt. Okay this is more of a guess but I really liked this film and think it could be the best. I’ll have to wait to see.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews (WINNER)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty
The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

0/3: I think it’s important to have this category because hair and makeup is a real art. But why would they nominate The Lone Ranger over the second Hobbit film. I really can’t believe the makeup in a western is any better than so many other films. And who would have predicted a film with Jackass Presents would be associated with the Oscar.

Who will and should win: Dallas Buyers Club. This will happen purely because I don’t think anyone wants its competition to pick up the award.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Let It Go" from Frozen; Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez "Happy" from Despicable Me 2; Music and Lyrics by Pharrell Williams
“The Moon Song" from Her; Music by Karen O; Lyrics by Karen O and Spike Jonze
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyrics by Paul Hewson

4/4: There are a lot of good songs here and all deserving. I’m so glad there are more than three. FYI - "Alone Yet Not Alone" from Alone Yet Not Alone was disqualified.

Who will and should win: “Let It Go” from Frozen. For all the little girls who sang along to the song when I went to see it, there’s no way it loses.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Gravity
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

3/5: I sense a swept in the sound categories.

Who will and should win: Gravity

BEST SOUND MIXING
Gravity
Captain Phillips
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
3/5: Gravity has this. Maybe Inside Llewyn David because of the music but I doubt it.

Who will and should win: Gravity

And for the shorts, here are my guesses.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed
CaveDigger, Jeffrey Karoff
Facing Fear, Jason Cohen
Karama Has No Walls, Sara Ishaq
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall, Edgar Barens
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed

My guess: Facing Fear – Something about this story of a gay man and his neo-nazi attacker trying to heal from hate speaks to me.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Mr. Hublot, Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares
Feral, Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
Get a Horse!, Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim
Possessions, Shuhei Morita
Room on the Broom, Max Lang and Jan Lachauer

My guess: Get a Horse. I liked the mixing of retro and modern animation. And it’s the one I saw.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Helium, Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Esteban Crespo
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything), Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
The Voorman Problem, Mark Gill and Baldwin Li

My guess: Helium – This just seems like the sentimental choice.